- August 7: 500♦ - Phillies (-105 RL) - LOSS
- August 6: 500♦ - Cubs - WIN
- August 5: 2500♦ - Padres (-120) - LOSS
- August 4: 800♦ - Guardians (+140 RL) - LOSS
- August 3: 800♦ - Padres - LOSS
- August 2: 800♦ - White Sox (+130) - WIN
- August 1: 800♦ - Brewers - WIN
- July 31: 800♦ - Blue Jays (+115 RL) - WIN
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Everyone should be on the same page for each new campaign and how to approach each season.
You first must understand the Kelly Criterion, sometimes referred to as the Kelly formula; it's a blueprint I like to use to maximize the long-term growth rate of our bankroll, using repeated gambles of the variety of ratings I give out.
That criterion says an aggressive gambler should wager a set percentage of his bankroll, pertaining to the advantage (or rating system in this case) he feels he has over the game itself.
For those of you who play blackjack when visiting casinos, you may do the same thing in determining there is a one percent advantage over the dealer, and wager 1 percent of the total bankroll.
The key thing to remember is determining the percentage your using, and the maximum you'd be willing to risk on the top rating you will find here, which is the 1,000♦ Power Play.
On a daily basis you will find my plays ranging from from 100♦ and 1,000♦, but well within percentages you can effectively spread your wagers. When you do see the rating system on plays upgraded to a higher level, I will always talk about managing the bankroll accordingly.
Remember, a 1,000♦ play does not indicate a specific amount for everyone in general, it means if you're absolute biggest play you're willing to make is a nickel - that is your gauge with this rating system.
You need only divide accordingly from your absolute maximum amount into whatever the rating is, based on 1,000♦ being the highest rating.
Overall, you will find that I like to keep it consistent day-to-day so you know exactly when I'm stepping out on a big play.
Please follow these ratings accordingly.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
The occasional 2,000♦, 3,000♦ or BLANK CHECK releases are games I feel are extreme value for the price, or in Kelly Criterion theory - is more of an advantage over the book.
I have always personally played a Blank Check game FIVE TIMES THE SIZE of my regular maximum bet. So, for example, on day I am releasing a Blank Check Winner, one 1,000♦ play and three 200♦ picks, a player with a maximum wager of $500 would wager the following:
Blank Check play - $2,500
1,000♦ Plays - $500
200♦ Plays - $100 each
With the vig, you would have a total of $3,630 in action.
Hope this helps in regards to money management!
Saturday's free play is the Boston Red Sox on the run line once again against the Athletics at Fenway Park.
Yes, the price on the run line is creeping up on Boston, but in actuality, I would probably lay -200 on the run line and back the Red Sox to win 10 in a row.
Boston is 32-5 in its last 37 games and will take on an A's team that has lost nine straight and 32 of its last 39.
The Red Sox are also 17-4 in their last 21 games at Fenway Park, while Sacramento is just 4-18 in its last 22 games on the road.
Jake Bennett and Gage Jump will pitch in this contest, which is a rematch of their July 28 meeting in Sacramento, when the Athletics defeated the Red Sox 4-3.
I don't expect the same result to happen again today at Fenway Park. Boston is simply playing too well right now, while the Athletics continue to struggle on the road and overall.
Play the Sox on the run line over the A's this afternoon.