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Winning Day # 145 of 250

$10 bettors up $22,110 past 249 days

40 DIME
NBA Double-Digit Blowout

My side wins by 14 points


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10/20 - 40 Dime - NC Charlotte (-130) - Loss

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Winning Day # 145 of 250

$10 bettors up $22,110 past 249 days

40 DIME
NBA Double-Digit Blowout

My side wins by 14 points
$69
Just in a rut right now. It happens to the best of us. 

All about finding a winner and building off of that winner.

Winning Day # 145 of 250

$10 bettors up $22,110 past 249 days

40 DIME
NBA Double-Digit Blowout

My side wins by 14 points

This game is going to the winner that I need to get me back on course.

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Mitch Newman's Rating System

In college I had one particular finance instructor who used to say "5/3rds of all people just don't get fractions."

I think gamblers feel the same way about handicappers' ratings sometimes.

Why must they be so complicated? The entire point of a rating system is that you know how much a handicapper likes a play in relation to how much you should be wagering on it.

Ah, but there's the rub.

I'm going to rate my plays on a 10-to-100 dime system. Nice and simple, right? An 80 Dimer is twice as strong as a 40 Dimer. A 100 Dimer is a Max Wager and 2 1/2 times stronger than a 40 Dimer. 

But how does that correlate to the amount you wager? Well, there are two factors you should consider and only you have those answers:
1 - The size of your bankroll for that given day

2 - Whether you're entering the day on a positive or negative roll

Who is Mitch Newman?

I know I may not look the type, but looks can be deceiving because I got hooked on this thing called gambling probably from the minute I played my first parlay card in 10th grade.

You remember those little slips from years ago your friends would hand out in class. Pick 4 teams for $1 to win $10.

Did I ever win? Hell no, but that taste was all I needed. I graduated to betting through my first "real" bookie while in college, where I studied business. 

You hear a lot about analytics when it comes to managing and coaching teams nowadays. Numbers obviously have a huge impact when it comes to handicapping games and I certainly respect them having a business background. But you can't ignore your gut instinct, your "feel" for a game. It's that blend that's made me successful over the years.

I've used my college degree and worked in the business world, but I eventually gravitated toward the gambling industry, first working as a writer for a couple of national publications/tipsheets and then releasing my own picks to a small following I had built via a phone service. This, however, is the first time I've ever released my plays online to the masses. 

Today's Complimentary Play

In this near pick'em AAC game between Memphis and UCF, I am going to side with the Tigers over the Knights.

This has been a series that has been thoroughly dominated by Central Florida, as UCF enters with a 13-2 straight up mark that had seen them win 13 in a row prior to last year's wild 50-49 meeting in Tennessee in a game that saw the Tigers come from 21 points down in the 4th quarter and hanging on for the win when the Knights missed the potential game-winning field goal on the final play of the contest!

This year's meeting takes on a different look though, as UCF has a new coach in Gus Malzahn and they are also playing with a true freshman - Mikey Keene - under center after losing their top triggerman Dillon Gabriel to a broken collarbone back in September. Keene has been adequate, but the fact is he has thrown as many touchdowns - 4 - as he has interceptions - 4. He is also playing without the team's top wide receiver and they just lost one of their top defenders in Kahlia Davis to a knee injury a couple of weeks ago.

The bottom line is this UCF team is a little too banged-up for me to feel they are invincible at home where they have indeed won 26 of their past 28 games the past 5 seasons. Included in that run is a perfect 7-0 run against Memphis that includes 2 of the wins in the AAC Championship Game back in 2017 and 2018.

Do you think the Tigers want a measure of revenge on this field? I sure do, and while true freshman quarterback Seth Henigan was not on the team for any of those losses, this kid looks like a winner to me....6' 3" and 200 pounds, Henigan has started in all 7 of the Tigers games and stands at 2nd in the conference in both passing yards (over 300 per game) and touchdowns with 16.

Memphis shook off a 3 game losing streak with the home win and cover last week under the prime time lights against Navy, while UCF was busy getting drummed 56-21 at Cincinnati in a game that saw them fall behind, 35-0. Memphis is not Cincinnati, far from it in fact, but they are catching the Knights at the right time in this year's meeting as the injuries to UCF give the Tigers their best chance in years to end a 7 game losing streak in Orlando.

Take Memphis.

4♦ MEMPHIS
(on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis)