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Mitch Newman's Rating System
In college I had one particular finance instructor who used to say "5/3rds of all people just don't get fractions."
I think gamblers feel the same way about handicappers' ratings sometimes.
Why must they be so complicated? The entire point of a rating system is that you know how much a handicapper likes a play in relation to how much you should be wagering on it.
Ah, but there's the rub.
I'm going to rate my plays on a 10-to-100 dime system. Nice and simple, right? An 80 Dimer is twice as strong as a 40 Dimer. A 100 Dimer is a Max Wager and 2 1/2 times stronger than a 40 Dimer.
But how does that correlate to the amount you wager? Well, there are two factors you should consider and only you have those answers:
1 - The size of your bankroll for that given day
2 - Whether you're entering the day on a positive or negative roll
Who is Mitch Newman?
I know I may not look the type, but looks can be deceiving because I got hooked on this thing called gambling probably from the minute I played my first parlay card in 10th grade.You remember those little slips from years ago your friends would hand out in class. Pick 4 teams for $1 to win $10.
Did I ever win? Hell no, but that taste was all I needed. I graduated to betting through my first "real" bookie while in college, where I studied business.
You hear a lot about analytics when it comes to managing and coaching teams nowadays. Numbers obviously have a huge impact when it comes to handicapping games and I certainly respect them having a business background. But you can't ignore your gut instinct, your "feel" for a game. It's that blend that's made me successful over the years.
I've used my college degree and worked in the business world, but I eventually gravitated toward the gambling industry, first working as a writer for a couple of national publications/tipsheets and then releasing my own picks to a small following I had built via a phone service. This, however, is the first time I've ever released my plays online to the masses.
Today's Complimentary Play
Sunday comp play is the undefeated Aztecs to stay undefeated with the road romp in Sin City against UNLV.
San Diego State is 20-0 on the season and they have won each of their first 9 conference games. Yes, the Aztecs have seen the double-digit impost bite their backers over their last pair of wins, but when priced as the single-digit favorite this year, State has gone 6-0 against the spread.
The Running Rebels have shown improvement with straight up wins in 7 of their last 9 games to move their season mark above .500 at 11-10, but they really haven't sniffed a win against their conference rivals in some time.
San Diego State has reeled off 4 straight wins and covers in this series and stand at 9-1 straight up the last 10 times the teams have played one another with a 7-1-2 spread mark in those 10 contests.
The Rebs feature the # 1 offense in Mountain West, but the 'Tecs counter with the # 1 defense in the conference and that defense will simply force the turnover-laden Rebels into turnover after turnover this afternoon at the Thomas and Mack Center.
It's unlikely the Aztecs blow through the regular season without a loss, but a loss today to the Rebels seems even more unlikely to me.
Lay it with the 20-0 visitor.
4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
(on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis)