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CHARITY PLAY OF THE WEEK 

WINS MONDAY


It has been an ugly, long dry spell for the Charity Play of the Week selections. And, if you know me, then you are well aware that it bothers me more than anything else at this site because without the winners being produced the community of caregivers we've created, one that has easily contributed over $300,000 the past few years, is kept on standby. 


Thankfully, Anthony Redd cashed last night (Monday) with overall winner # 9 of 10 on the T'Wolves-Rockets game Over the Total. You got that $99 pick for FREE and now I'm asking you to do your part once more and make a difference in the lives of strangers in their time of need.


Today I want to bring your attention the plight of 28-year-old Chris Sparkman, who was one of six innocent victims shot by a deranged 19-year-old gunman, who later committed suicide, at a Fed Ex facility in Kennesaw, Georgia last April.


Sparkman, an air traffic controller in the Army who was working as a security officer at the facility, was shot at point-blank range in the abdomen just minutes before his shift was over.


This young man underwent his 26th surgery, an 11-hour procedure, last Monday (February 16), to further repair damage done to his intestines by the blast. Unfortunately, just six days later (February 22) he was rushed back into the OR for emergency surgery due to complications and he's remained in a medically induced coma since.


I have no more updates than that. But frankly, that's enough. Imagine 27 surgeries in less than one year and still not out of the woods with a young wife by his side.


You can read about this man's journey here:


http://www.sparkmanstrong.blogspot.com/


And you can make a donation by clicking on that same link above.


Once you arrive, scroll down past the couple's picture and you will see a "DONATE" button in yellow on the right side. 


Donations are being accepted via Pay Pal or by credit card. 


If you don't have a PayPal account, just look to the left of the "login" box for PayPal and you'll see a link saying "Continue" right above the credit card logos to make your donation using a charge card rather than PayPal. 


I began the Charity Play of the Week Promotion in March of 2012 because I felt that I could create a community of givers from those that gamble using my advice and that of the handicappers at this site. 


The word "gambling" has many negative connotations, but I always believed there was some greater good that could be accomplished while enjoying what we do for recreation. And the accompanying positive karma is something we call could use in all phases of our lives.


Since the program's inception, I have given away over $5-million (yes, MILLION) worth of selections at the site. And the response has been overwhelming because you have helped so many strangers in need of financial assistance. 


That is what building a community of givers is all about. 


Again, this is an honor-based giveaway. I don't know who you are or whether you actually give. Ultimately, you have to look in the mirror and judge yourself. As I've said repeatedly, I believe stuff like this creates good karma, and that's something we can never have enough of in life.

 

Regards,
 
Al DeMarco,
General Manager



FRIDAY'S FREE PICK

Sorry, a little under the weather today so I'm taking a pass on Friday's Video Report. I will absolutely be returning on Saturday.

Now, last night I went 0-2 with my free picks, losing with Purdue and Northeastern. But, I won my best bet for the third straight day, and fifth time in six overall, with LA Tech (-5) by 17 over UTEP.

I hate losing freebies, but this is all about hitting the best bets, the games my money and yours is actually on. Nonetheless, I'll try to get back on track with a play from my favorite - and most profitable conference - the Horizon League, where first place, and the rights to host the postseason tournament, is at stake tonight when Cleveland State hosts Valparaiso.

It should, however, tell you something that I couldn't pull the trigger on this game personally. The reason is simply the number: Cleveland State -3 1/2. The Vikings at -2 or less I could live with. But I believe this is going to be a low-scoring game with both teams in the 50's. And although I like the Vikings, they could just win by two or three points and fail to cover, which would be no surprise considering they're just 3-7 ATS at home this season.

Cleveland State thought it had no shot at the league title following Sunday's loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, which had been preceded two days earlier by a huge road overtime upset of Wisconsin-Green Bay. But then Valparaiso, needing just one win to clinch the crown, opened the door with a shocking loss at Detroit-Mercy on Thursday.

So you have two teams off huge losses meeting in a high-stakes game tonight. First, I think you have to automatically side with the home team, despite that extra hook at -3 1/2. Second, you have to like the host since its more removed from Sunday's road loss while Valpo is on the floor again 48 hours after it's devastating setback at Detroit.

The Crusaders had won seven straight and 12 of 13 before losing to the Titans. At 25-5 they've got a nice record, but truth is their RPI is so weak (around 280), they're a long-shot to earn an at-large bid so winning the Horizon League tournament is pretty much their only way to earn a Big Dance ticket.

Cleveland State has played a tougher schedule (RPI around 69) and seeks to avenge a 58-56 loss at Valparaiso as a +5 1/2-point dog in the season's first meeting January 10. The Vikings actually led by three with 2:27 to play before collapsing. They shot just 36 percent in that game while allowing Valpo to nail 48.9 percent of its shots. With the change in venue, you've got to figure those numbers swing the other way, especially since the Crusaders are coming off a miserable 34.8 percent shooting effort at Detroit two nights ago.

Again, this is going to be a low-scoring game. Could be 61-57 or 58-55. I like Cleveland State, but it won't be easy, which is why my own money isn't on the Vikings.

 


 

10 of 13 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
170-138-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
 
+219.75 Dimes
 
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Releases
9/7/14 - Philadelphia (-10') 34-17 over Jacksonville
10/5/14 - Philadelphia (-7) fails vs. St. Louis, 36-28
1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
71-56-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

50-36-3 Record

 


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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Free Pick Video
 
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Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Wynn Grande Carib CRIS
NBA Friday, February 27, 2015
7:05 PM 801 Washington
802 Philadelphia
12
19
05:32
1st Q
-7½-05
193½
-7
193½
-7
194
-7-15
193
-7½+ev
194½u20
-7-15
193½
7:05 PM 803 Cleveland
804 Indiana
21
12
04:32
1st Q
193½
-2½
193½
-2½
193½
-2½
194
-2½
193½o15
-2½
193½
-2½
7:35 PM 805 New York
806 Detroit
    192
-13½-05
192
-13
192
-12½
192
-12½
193½u15
-13
192
-13-05
7:35 PM 807 Orlando
808 Atlanta
    195½
-11
195
-11
195½
-11
195½
-11½-05
196½u20
-11-05
195½
-11
7:35 PM 809 Golden State
810 Toronto
    -2-05
213
-2
213
-2
212½
-1½-15
213
pk-25
213½u15
-2-05
213
7:35 PM 811 Charlotte
812 Boston
    196
-1½
196
-1½
196
-1½
196
-2-05
195½
-2½+ev
196
-1½
8:05 PM 813 La Clippers
814 Memphis
    199
-4½
199½
-4½
199
-5
199
-4½-15
199u15
-4½-15
199
-4½
8:05 PM 815 Brooklyn
816 Houston
    208½
-7½
208
-8
208
-7½
208½o15
-8
207o25
-7-25
208½
-8-05
8:05 PM 817 Miami
818 New Orleans
    -2½-05
195½
-2
196
-1½
196
-2-15
196
-1½-25
196½u15
-2½-05
196
8:05 PM 819 Minnesota
820 Chicago
    193½
-5½-05
193½
-5½
193½
-5
193½
-5
194½
-4½-20
193½
-5½-05
9:05 PM 821 Utah
822 Denver
    -4½
193½
-4½
193½
-4½
194
-4½
193½
-4½-15
195u25
-4½
193½
10:05 PM 823 San Antonio
824 Sacramento
    -9½
202
-9½
201
-9
200½
-9-15
201
-8-20
200½o25
-9½
201½
10:35 PM 825 Milwaukee
826 La Lakers
    -6½-05
192½
-6½
192½
-6
193
-6-15
192½u15
-6-15
193½u25
-6½-05
192½
10:35 PM 827 Oklahoma City
828 Portland
    206
-6-16
206
-6
207
-6
206½
-6-15
207u20
-5½-20
206o11
-6-15
NBA Saturday, February 28, 2015
7:05 PM 501 Detroit
502 Washington
    193½
-3

 
 
 
 
 
 
193½
7:35 PM 503 Toronto
504 New York
    -13½
195
-13½
195
 
 
 
 
 
 
195
7:35 PM 505 Atlanta
506 Miami
    -5
197½
-5
197½
 
 
 
 
 
 
197½
8:05 PM 507 Memphis
508 Minnesota
    -4½
194½
-5
194½
 
 
 
 
 
 
194½
8:35 PM 509 Brooklyn
510 Dallas
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9:05 PM 511 Milwaukee
512 Utah
    185½
-3
185½
-3
 
 
 
 
 
 
185½
9:05 PM 513 San Antonio
514 Phoenix
    208
pk-28
208
-1
 
 
 
 
 
 
208
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