SUNDAY'S FREE PICK

Site complications have left me running so far behind today so rather than make you wait until I can get around to shooting a Video Report, I've decided to post my selection here, especially since it's on the early Dancer between Michigan State and Louisville that tips at 2:20 Eastern.

Love the way the Spartans have played the past three weeks. They're on a 7-1 roll in that stretch with the lone loss coming in overtime two Sundays ago against Wisconsin. And we all saw how good the Badgers were - again - in yesterday's comeback win against Arizona. (Trust me, I know since I had the Wildcats in the game.)

Rick Pitino has said for weeks that this edition of the Cardinals is not one of his best. I say we take him for his word. After all, has Louisville not been blessed with an easy road to the Round of Eight? 

The Cardinals struggled to put away Cal-Irvine in their tournament opener. They took care of business against Northern Iowa in the Round of 32. Then, they ended N.C. State's Cinderella dreams by ousting the Wolfpack in the Round of 16.

Cal-Irvine, Northern Iowa, N.C. State. A trio that doesn't exactly strike fear in your heart, right?

Now, look at Michigan's road to today's game. Yes, the Spartans had a cupcake in Georgia to open the Dance, but they proved their mettle by subsequently beating back Virginia and Oklahoma.

MSU has a hot guard in Travis Trice to shoot over Louisville's match-up zone. He's scored at least 20 points five times during the Spartans' 7-1 roll. And in Braden Dawson they've got the muscle to counter Louisville's Montrezl Harrell in the paint.

Michigan State is driven my the memory of getting ousted by No. 7 seed Connecticut in this round a year ago. Today they put that nightmare to sleep.

 


 

10 of 13 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
170-138-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
 
+219.75 Dimes
 
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Releases
9/7/14 - Philadelphia (-10') 34-17 over Jacksonville
10/5/14 - Philadelphia (-7) fails vs. St. Louis, 36-28
1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
71-56-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

50-37-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Top-Rated
15 DIME
College Winner # 24 of 38

Duke vs. Gonzaga

41-26-2 College Roll Overall

5 DIME
Winner # 16 of 20

Spurs - Grizzlies
Buy Now Buy Now $75
Prior to Saturday I had been on rolls of 6-1 with my Dance Best Bets and 6-2 wtih my tournament free picks. Needless to say, I wasn't even close yesterday, dropping a 15 dimer on Arizona and free play on Kentucky.

Looking to rebound today with 15 Dime College Winner # 24 of 38 overall, a play that matches my normal highest rated release in basketball, on the Gonzaga-Duke game plus 5 Dime Bonus Winner # 16 of 20 on the Spurs-Grizzlies game in the NBA.

Discount packages

1 YEAR OF SERVICE (365 Days)
Buy Now Buy Now $1,995
Every Play - Every Sport - For 365 Days

Nothing further to buy!

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase
100 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $999

All of my Action for 100 Days

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $749
60 Days of Non-Stop Action

Every Play - No Exception

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $479
Every Play I've Got for 30 Days

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $189

7 Days of Action - Every Play - Every Sport

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an Instant Rebate is Available on Qualifying Purchases
of 30 Days or Longer
 
 
INSTANT REBATE AMOUNTS
 
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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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NBA Sunday, March 29, 2015
12:30 PM 701 Houston
702 Washington
    -2½
206
-2½
206
-2½
206
-2½
206
-2-15
205½o20
-2½
206
3:35 PM 703 La Lakers
704 Brooklyn
    202
-6½
200
-7
200
-7½
200
-7½
201u20
-7-15
200
-7½-05
4:05 PM 705 Minnesota
706 New Orleans
    198½
-12½
197½
-12
198
-12
197½
-12
198½u20
-12½
198
-12-15
4:35 PM 707 Philadelphia
708 Cleveland
    201
-17-05
201
-16
201
-16
201
-16
202u20
-17+ev
201
-16
6:05 PM 709 La Clippers
710 Boston
    -5½-15
206
-6
205½
-6
206½
-6½
205½
-6½-15
205o20
-6-15
205½
6:05 PM 711 Detroit
712 Miami
    194½
-3
194
-3
194
-3
 
-3
193o20
-3
194
-3
7:05 PM 713 Dallas
714 Indiana
    199
-1½-05
200
-2
200
-2
 
 
200
-2
200
-2-15
7:05 PM 715 Memphis
716 San Antonio
    193
-8
193
-8
193½
-8
193½
-8
193½u15
-7-25
193
-8
9:05 PM 717 Oklahoma City
718 Phoenix
    213
-1-05
214½
-1½
214
-1
 
 
213½o20
-1-20
214½
-1½-05
NBA Monday, March 30, 2015
7:05 PM 731 Boston
732 Charlotte
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:05 PM 733 La Lakers
734 Philadelphia
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:35 PM 735 Houston
736 Toronto
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:35 PM 737 Milwaukee
738 Atlanta
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8:05 PM 739 Utah
740 Minnesota
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8:05 PM 741 Sacramento
742 Memphis
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10:05 PM 743 Phoenix
744 Portland
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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