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MONDAY'S FREE PLAY

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 486-441-14 roll the past 545 days (7-2 since Thursday) after scoring with Sunday's play on DePaul.

Today's one of those days where I'm feeling awful so no Video Report. I'll try to return on Tuesday.

Today I'm backing Texas State (+7) at Georgia State.

Two weeks ago Georgia State was part of a three-way tie atop the Sun Belt Conference. Three straight losses later - the last two coming in heart-breaking fashion - the Panthers find themselves sitting in third place, negating the eight-game winning streak that preceded this current slump.

A week ago tonight the Panthers dropped a 65-64 decision at Coastal Carolina on a putback with 3.5 seconds to play. On Saturday at home they coughed up a 15-point lead with 11 minutes remaining to Sun Belt-leader Texas-Arlington and lost on a 35-footer with two seconds to play. 

Those are back-breaking losses. Playing at home tonight might help them rebound with the straight-up win, but I can't see investing in them at such a heavy price considering Texas State is on a 5-2 SU roll overall and 3-3 this season on the Sun Belt road with wins at Troy, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State and losses by five at South Alabama, three at Georgia Southern and only 15 at Texas-Arlington. In other words, the Bobcats have been competitive outside of their home base of San Marcos (45 minutes south of Austin if you happen to be on Jeopardy next week).

Texas State is off a 70-67 loss at Georgia Southern on Saturday, but the Bobcats showed some moxie by rallying from a 12-point, half-time deficit to make it a three-point game with 24 seconds to play against a  host that was seeking a ninth straight home win. 

These two squads are tops in the Sun Belt in field goal defense but Texas State allows almost eight points fewer a game so investing in the road dog against a home team off a pair of deflating, late-game losses isn't a bad strategy.  

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
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15 Dime Releases

 

88-63-3 Record

 


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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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College Basketball - College Basketball - Monday, February 20, 2017
7:00 PM 701 Boston College
702 Florida State
72
104

Final
157
-18-15
157
-19
157
-19
157
-19
157
-18-15
158
-19
7:00 PM 703 Miami Florida
704 Virginia
54
48
OT
Final
117u15
-7½
117½
-8
117
-8
117
-7½-15
117u15
-7½
118
-8
7:00 PM 705 Texas State
706 Georgia State
51
67

Final
128½o12
-7½-05
128½
-7

-7½
128
-7½
128½o12
-7½-05
129½
-7
7:00 PM 707 Texas Arlington
708 Georgia Southern
81
71

Final
-6
158
-6½
158½
-6½
-6½
158
-6
158
-6½
158½
8:00 PM 709 Appalachian State
710 Troy
66
76

Final
156½o13
-7-05
156½
-7

-7-15
157
-7
156½o13
-7-05
158½
-7½
8:00 PM 711 Coastal Carolina
712 South Alabama
81
77
OT
Final
142½
-3-05
144
-3

-2½
143½
-3-05
142½
-3-05
144
-3
9:05 PM 713 Texas
714 West Virginia
62
77

Final
143
-15½-15
143½
-15
143½
-15½
142½
-15½
143
-15½-15
143½
-16
9:00 PM 715 Iowa State
716 Texas Tech
82
80
OT
Final
142½
-3
143½
-3½
143
-3½-15
142½
-3½
142½
-3
144
-3½
College Basketball - College Basketball - Tuesday, February 21, 2017
6:00 PM 501 Rhode Island
502 La Salle
     
 
-3
 
 
 
-3
 
 
 
-3
145
6:00 PM 503 Purdue
504 Penn State
     
 
-8
 
 
-8½
 
 
 
-8½
147½
7:00 PM 505 Oklahoma
506 Baylor
     
 

-12
 
 
 
-12
 
 
139
-12
7:00 PM 507 Clemson
508 Virginia Tech
     
 
 
-2½
 
 
 
-2½
 
 
151½
-2½
7:00 PM 509 Auburn
510 LSU
     
 
-3
 
 
-3-15
 
 
-3
173
7:00 PM 511 South Carolina
512 Florida
     
 

-10
 
 
 
-9½
 
 
138½
-9½
7:00 PM 513 Northern Illinois
514 Central Michigan
     
 

-3½
 
 

-3½-05
 
 
162½
-3½
7:00 PM 515 Western Michigan
516 Toledo
     
 
 
-6
 
 
 
-6
 
 
155
-6
7:00 PM 517 Kent State
518 Buffalo
     
 
 
-7
 
 
 
-7
 
 
152
-7
7:00 PM 519 Ohio
520 Miami Ohio
     
 
-7
 
 
 
-7-05
 
 
-7
147
7:00 PM 521 Eastern Michigan
522 Ball State
     
 

-3
 
 

-3
 
 
149½
-3
7:00 PM 523 Cleveland State
524 Detroit
     
 
-1½
 
 
 
-1½
 
 
-1½
145½
7:00 PM 525 Wright State
526 Northern Kentucky
     
 
 
-3
 
 
 
-3
 
 
148
-3
7:00 PM 527 Youngstown State
528 Oakland
     
 

-13
 
 
 
-13½
 
 
159
-13½
7:00 PM 529 George Mason
530 Dayton
     
 

-12
 
 

-12½
 
 
144
-12
8:00 PM 531 Wisc Milwaukee
532 Valparaiso
     
 
 
-15
 
 
 
-15
 
 
135½
-15
8:00 PM 533 Wisc Green Bay
534 Illinois Chicago
     
 
-2
 
 
-2
 
 
-2½
160½
8:00 PM 535 Evansville
536 Wichita State
     
 

-19½
 
 

-19½
 
 
140
-19½
8:00 PM 537 Davidson
538 Richmond
     
 

pk
 
 

pk
 
 
150
-1
8:00 PM 539 Nc State
540 Georgia Tech
     
 

-5
 
 

-5-05
 
 
144½
-5
8:00 PM 541 St. John's
542 Marquette
     
 

-9½
 
 

-9-15
 
 
164½
-9
8:00 PM 543 Northwestern
544 Illinois
     
 
-1½
 
 
-1½-15
 
 
-1½
134
9:00 PM 545 Indiana
546 Iowa
     
 

-1½
 
 

-1½
 
 
156½
-2½
9:00 PM 547 Kentucky
548 Missouri
     
 
-16
 
 
-16
 
 
 
-16½
153
9:00 PM 549 Mississippi
550 Mississippi St
     
 
 
-2
 
 
 
-2
 
 
152½
-2
9:00 PM 551 Akron
552 Bowling Green
     
 
-5½
 
 
-5½-15
 
 
-6
149
9:00 PM 553 East Carolina
554 Tulane
     
 

-2
 
 
 
-2
 
 
135½
-2
10:00 PM 555 Colorado State
556 New Mexico
     
 
 
-3
 
 

-3-05
 
 
145
-2½
College Basketball - Added Game - Tuesday, February 21, 2017
7:00 PM 557 Monmouth
558 Fairfield
     
 
-6
 
 
 
-6
 
 
 
-6
151½
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