FRIDAY'S FREE PICKS

Sorry, no Video Report today. I'll be back on Saturday morning.

First, a quick recap of NBA playoff action.

A string of four straight home dogs winning outright came to an end on Wednesday when the Cavaliers annihilated Toronto, 116-78, and the chalk got another cover last night with Golden State hanging on in Game Five against Oklahoma City. 

Favorites are 44-31-1 ATS in the postseason overall, but just 5-5 in the conference finals.

The Warriors-Thunder went over last night, but the Under has been the stalwart throughout the postseason, checking in at 45-31-1 on the low side, including 6-4 in the finals.

Home teams were four games over .500 versus the spread in both rounds one and two, but here in the finals they're 9-1 ATS so far. 


Free Pick - Cavaliers (+6') at TORONTO

You read it above, the home teams are 9-1 ATS in the conference finals. And the host has won all eight meetings between these two finalists this season. Throw in the Raptors being 8-2 ATS north of the border in the postseason against the Pacers, Heat and Cavs combined, and those are a lot of positive trends supporting Toronto tonight.

BUT....streaks are meant to be broken and I like the Cavaliers to close out the series. They see the Thunder are on the verge of doing the same tomorrow against Golden State and there's no desire to return to Cleveland for the drama of a Game Seven with a potentially more rested OKC team on the horizon.

So many reasons while the Raptors got rocked on Wednesday, but the biggest is the fact that Lowry and DeRozan combined for 27 points - 40 fewer than they totaled in Game Four. 

For the Cavs, their key to success was two-fold on Wednesday. First, Kevin Love - after two miserable games in Toronto - was back in business with 25 points. Second, after getting hammered on the boards the previous two games, the Cavs outrebounded Toronto, 48-27, which subsequently led to a 46-32 edge in points in the paint an 18-11 advantage in second-chance points. 

A word of caution: I've been on the wrong side of six of my last eight plays involving the Raptors so take the play for what it's worth. But, I really do like the Cavs tonight!


FREE PICK # 2 - MARINERS (+100 Run Line) vs. Minnesota

I used the Mariners and Felix Hernandez as a Top-Rated 15 Dimer last Saturday and he rewarded me with six innings of four-hit, shutout ball in a 4-0, run line (+105) win at Cincinnati. Now the King is back at Safeco where his ERA is 1.55 in four starts this season covering 29 innings in which he's struck out 27.

Hernandez is 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last five starts against Minnesota.

The Twinkies have lost 20 of 25, including eight of 10. They're 3-9 in that stretch on the road and 4-19 outside of the Twin Cities this season. That's what happens when you're dead last in the American League in runs scored and one of the worst teams in the majors with runners in scoring position.

Seattle put 19 runs on the board the past two days in wins against the A's after getting banked in that series opener. The Mariners have won six of their last seven overall and I've got no problem laying the -1 1/2 runs with them at home tonight against a 27-year-old, rookie left-hander, Pat Dean, who is making on his second start after two relief outings earlier this season. 


 


 

10 of 14 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
187-159-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
 
+125.75 Dimes
 
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
84-68-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

75-52-3 Record

 


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Top-Rated
15 Dime
Winner # 27 of 40

Rangers - Pirates

Winning Day # 7 of 10
Buy Now Buy Now $65
A seventh winning day in nine was not to be on Thursday as I road the Red Sox one too many times and ended up a loser against Colorado. But I also once again managed to preserve my bankroll by taking Boston as a +120 dog on the run line so my losses were minimized. 

Coming right back with a play just as strong, Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 27 of 40 (and seventh in 10 days), on the Rangers-Pirates.   

As for the free plays I lost yesterday's play on the Warriors. My overall record is 298-266-8 over the past 317 days. 

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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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MLB - National League - Friday, May 27, 2016
2:20 PM 901 PHI (A. Morgan)
902 CUB (J. Lester)
2
6
Bot
7th
9
-290
9
-290
9
-280
9u15
-300
9
-290
9u15
-300
7:05 PM 903 STL (J. Garcia)
904 WAS (M. Scherzer)
    7o20
-164
7o20
-161
7o20
-158
7o15
-165
7o20
-164
7o15
-165
7:10 PM 905 LAD (J. Urias)
906 NYM (J. deGrom)
    7
-109
7o15
-110
7o15
-111
7o15
-110
7
-109
7o20
-113
7:35 PM 907 MIA (A. Conley)
908 ATL (W. Perez)
    -125
7½u15
-125
7½u15
-126
7½u15
-130
7½u20
-125
7½u15
-130
7½u15
8:10 PM 909 CIN (J. Lamb)
910 MIL (Z. Davies)
    9u20
-134
9u15
-128
9u15
-129
9u20
-135
9u20
-134
9u15
-133
8:40 PM 911 SFO (M. Cain)
912 COL (T. Chatwood)
    10½
-121
10½
-118
10½
-117
10½o15
-120
10½
-121
10½
-118
9:40 PM 913 SDG (C. Friedrich)
914 ARI (R. Ray)
    10u20
-173
9½o20
-160
9½o25
-163
9½o25
-165
10u20
-173
9½o20
-165
MLB - American League - Friday, May 27, 2016
7:05 PM 915 BOS (J. Kelly)
916 TOR (Aa. Sanchez)
    8½u19
-141
8½u20
-140
8½u20
-136
8½u15
-140
8½u19
-141
8½u15
-135
7:10 PM 917 BAL (M. Wright)
918 CLE (T. Bauer)
    9u25
-115
8½o15
-115
9u25
-115
9u25
-120
9u25
-115
9u20
-120
7:10 PM 919 NYY (M. Tanaka)
920 TAM (C. Archer)
    -116
7u20
-115
7u20
-114
7u20
7u20
-110
-116
7u20
-116
7u20
8:15 PM 921 CWS (Mi Gonzalez)
922 KAN (D. Duffy)
    8
-143
8u15
-138
8u20
-137
8
-140
8
-143
8o15
-139
10:05 PM 923 HOU (M. Fiers)
924 LAA (M. Shoemaker)
    -120
7½u15
-115
7½o15
-117
-120
7½u15
-120
7½u15
-118
10:05 PM 925 DET (M. Fulmer)
926 OAK (S. Manaea)
    -121
8o20
-124
8o15
-125
8o25
-135
8o20
-121
8o20
-128
8o20
10:10 PM 927 MIN (P. Dean)
928 SEA (F. Hernandez)
    7½u15
-205
7½u15
-215

-205
7½u15
-215
7½u15
-205
7½o15
-230
MLB - Interleague - Friday, May 27, 2016
8:05 PM 929 PIT (J. Niese)
930 TEX (C. Hamels)
    9u20
-132
9u20
-135
9u20
-133
9
-145
9u20
-132
9
-135
MLB - National League - Saturday, May 28, 2016
2:20 PM 951 PHI (J. Eickhoff)
952 CUB (K. Hendricks)
     
-260
 
 
 
 
 
-260
 
-260
 
 
4:10 PM 953 MIA (W.Y. Chen)
954 ATL (A. Blair)
    -149
7½o15
 
 
 
 
-145
7½o15
-149
7½o15
 
 
4:10 PM 955 CIN (A. Simon)
956 MIL (Ch. Anderson)
    9u15
-150
 
 
 
 
9u15
-150
9u15
-150
 
 
4:10 PM 957 SFO (M. Bumgarner)
958 COL (Undecided COL)
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:15 PM 959 LAD (K. Maeda)
960 NYM (N. Syndergaard)
    7u20
-150
 
 
 
 
7u20
-145
7u20
-150
 
 
7:15 PM 961 STL (A. Wainwright)
962 WAS (G. Gonzalez)
   
-141
 
 
 
 

-140

-141
 
 
10:10 PM 963 SDG (C. Vargas)
964 ARI (Z. Greinke)
    8o20
-215
 
 
 
 
8o20
-210
8o20
-215
 
 
MLB - American League - Saturday, May 28, 2016
1:05 PM 965 BOS (R. Porcello)
966 TOR (M. Stroman)
    8½o20
-134
 
 
 
 
8½o20
-135
8½o20
-134
 
 
2:15 PM 967 CWS (C. Rodon)
968 KAN (Y. Ventura)
    8u15
-124
 
 
 
 
 
 
8u15
-124
 
 
4:05 PM 969 DET (M. Boyd)
970 OAK (J. Hahn)
   
-122
 
 
 
 

-125

-122
 
 
4:10 PM 971 BAL (U. Jimenez)
972 CLE (D. Salazar)
    8o15
-155
 
 
 
 
8o15
-150
8o15
-155
 
 
4:10 PM 973 NYY (M. Pineda)
974 TAM (M. Moore)
    -108
8u20
 
 
 
 
8u20
-110
-108
8u20
 
 
10:05 PM 975 HOU (D. Keuchel)
976 LAA (J. Weaver)
    -125
8u20
 
 
 
 
-125
8u20
-125
8u20
 
 
10:10 PM 977 MIN (P. Hughes)
978 SEA (W. Miley)
    8u15
-161
 
 
 
 
8u15
-155
8u15
-161
 
 
7:15 PM 979 PIT (J. Nicasio)
980 TEX (Y. Darvish)
    9o15
-152
 
 
 
 
9o15
-150
9o15
-152
 
 
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