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FRIDAY'S FREE PICK

CLEVELAND (-13) vs. Miami

Picked up a third straight NBA free pick winner last night with Philadelphia winning outright at New Orleans.

Going to lay the points with Cleveland tonight but this will be a real test to see whether the Cavs really have the killer instinct and focus they've lacked so often in the first quarter of the season.

I backed them as a free pick on Monday when they traveled to Toronto and snapped a three-game skid by putting an end to the Raptors' six-game winning streak.

Wednesday they moved onto New York and hammered the Knicks 126-94 at the Garden.

Now they're back home against an injury-riddled Miami team that's not only playing its third game in four days, but also has just nine players in uniform with Justice Winslow, Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters, James Johnson and Luke Babbitt not with the team. Throw in rookie Rodney McGruder's ankle injury suffered in Wednesday's 103-95 loss in Atlanta, and you've got to wonder just what the Heat will have to give tonight.

With no one to fear other than Goran Dragic, opponents are starting to double and triple-team Hassan Whiteside, who was held to eight points on four-for-12 shooting by the Hawks.

With no one other than Whiteside to patrol the paint the Heat have been hammered on the boards of late, too. The Hawks and Knicks - who beat them in Miami on Tuesday - combined for 32 offensive rebounds and 53 second-chance points.

The Cavaliers are a bit shorthanded with J.R. Smith out. With Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova no longer around that means DeAndre Liggins (2.6 ppg) is starting in the backcourt next to Kryie Irving. Still, just by showing up tonight Cleveland is 15 points better than the injury-riddled Heat. Question is do they play like it or do they fail to cover for the eighth time in 11 home games? I choose the former. 

 


 

10 of 14 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
206-163-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
97-72-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

81-58-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Highest-Rated 15 Dime Release

NBA Revenge Game of the Year

Has not started yet

Matches Tuesday's 15 Dimer on
the Pistons

Matches Sunday's 15 Dimer
on the Raiders

Bigger than last night's
10 on the Chiefs

81-58-3 with NBA 15 Dimers since
the 2009 Season

Buy Now Buy Now $99
Made it 4 of 5 winning days with my NFL Winner # 7 of 9 last night, a 10 Dimer (# 3 of 4 in the pros) on the Chiefs.

Still upside down 20 of the past 32 days after winning 12 of the previous 16 thought. In other words, I've got a lot of catching up to do.

Tonight I have my Highest-Rated 15 Dimer in the NBA, my Revenge Game of the Year, a play that matches Tuesday's winner on the Pistons over the Bulls, a winner that raised my record with NBA 15 Dime Best Bets to 81-58-3 since the 2009 season. It matches Sunday's NFL 15 Dimer on the Raiders and it is bigger than last night's 10 Dimer on the Raiders and Monday's 5 Dimer on the Colts.
  
As for the comp plays, I
'm on a 438-388-11 roll (89-68-3 L/156) after scoring with a third straight NBA Winner on the 76ers last night.

Discount packages

1 YEAR OF SERVICE (365 Days)
Buy Now Buy Now $1,995
Every Play - Every Sport - For 365 Days

Nothing further to buy!

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase
100 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $999

All of my Action for 100 Days

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $749
60 Days of Non-Stop Action

Every Play - No Exception

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $479
Every Play I've Got for 30 Days

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $189

7 Days of Action - Every Play - Every Sport

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an Instant Rebate is Available on Qualifying Purchases
of 30 Days or Longer
 
 
INSTANT REBATE AMOUNTS
 
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Upgrade to a 60-Day Package - Get a $100 Rebate
 
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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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NFL - Week #14 - Sunday, December 11, 2016
1:00 PM 105 Denver
106 Tennessee
     
 
43½
-1
 
 
 
 
 
 
43½
-1
1:00 PM 107 San Diego
108 Carolina
    49
-1-15
49
-1½
48½
-1½
49
-1½
49
-1-15
49
-1
1:00 PM 109 Houston
110 Indianapolis
    46½
-6½-15
46½
-6½
46½
-6½-15
46½
-6½
46½
-6½-15
46½
-6½
1:00 PM 111 Cincinnati
112 Cleveland
    -5½-05
42
-5½
42½
-5
42½u15
-5
42½
-5½-05
42
-6
43
1:00 PM 113 Pittsburgh
114 Buffalo
    -3+05
46
-3+ev
46½
-2½-30
46½
-2½-15
46½
-3+05
46
-3+ev
47
1:00 PM 115 Arizona
116 Miami
    -2
43½
-1½
43½
-2
43½
-2
43½
-2
43½
-1½
43½
1:00 PM 117 Chicago
118 Detroit
    43½
-7-15
43½
-7-20
43½
-7-20
43½
-7½
43½
-7-15
43½
-8
1:00 PM 119 Minnesota
120 Jacksonville
    -3-20
39½
-3½+ev
39½
-3-25
39½o15
-3-20
39½
-3-20
39½
-3½
39½
4:25 PM 121 New Orleans
122 Tampa Bay
    51½
-2½-20
51½
-2½-20
51
-2½
51
-2½-15
51½
-2½-20
51½
-3+ev
1:00 PM 123 Washington
124 Philadelphia
    -2-15
47u15
-2
46½
-2-20
47
-2
47u15
-2-15
47u15
-2
46½
4:05 PM 125 Ny Jets
126 San Francisco
    43½
-2½-20
43½
-2½-20
43½
-2½-30
44
-2½-25
43½
-2½-20
43½
-3+ev
4:25 PM 127 Seattle
128 Green Bay
    -3
45½
-3
46
-3
46
-3-15
45½o15
-3
45½
-3
46
4:25 PM 129 Atlanta
130 Los Angeles
    -6-15
45o15
-6½
45
-6½
45
-6
45
-6-15
45o15
-7+ev
45
8:30 PM 131 Dallas
132 Ny Giants
    -3½-15
47
-3½
47
-4
47u15
-3½-15
47½
-3½-15
47
-4
47
NFL - NFL - Monday, December 12, 2016
8:30 PM 133 Baltimore
134 New England
    44½o15
-7+ev
45
-7+ev
45½o15
-7+05
45
-7+ev
44½o15
-7+ev
45½
-7+ev
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